When I was a kid, my mother used to make me walk home from school.

I hated it. Walking was boring to me. So I made up little games in my head to make it interesting. One of the things I used to do to break up the walk was to give myself sign-posts. Instead of walking the whole way, thinking about all the steps and turns I had to do, I’d just convince myself I had to walk to the shops.

Once I was at the shops, I walked to the train tracks.

Then the car wreckers.

Then my friend’s house.

Then, before I knew it, I was home. Mum had my afternoon tea ready and I could go and watch cartoons or play Nintendo. Bliss.

I did it with lots of things. Instead of thinking about the giant task in front of me, I broke it down into smaller pieces and just concentrated on one bit at a time.

Today, I realised I do exactly the same thing when I’m looking at a crowdfunding project. When it comes to predicting crowdfunding success, numbers are pretty much everything. I break every campaign I run down into sign-posted chunks. The sign-posts give me a really clear idea of how the project is doing. They’re so reliable that I can pretty much tell you whether you’re going to fund (with around 90% accuracy) after 7 days. They don’t just apply to Kickstarter either. For the most part, these are pretty reliable on all rewards-based crowdfunding projects.

10%

10% is the first sign-post I look for. A project that hits this on Day 1 is, in my experience, guaranteed ultimate success.

Don’t worry if it takes a little longer, however. If you hit 10% in the first 3 or 4 days, you’re on your way.

30%

30% is a ringing bell. If you are over 30% before your final week, you have a 90% chance of success.

Take a look at the Kickstarter stats below (these were taken today – 16 May 2014 – but you can always find the most recent stats here).

Of a total 80,299 unsuccessful projects, 65,000 – more than three-quarters – raised less than 20% of their funds.

It’s not a time for complacency, but going into your final week with more than 30% of your funds raised is a fighting start.

Take the case of Open Table, who raised the final $7,000 (35%) of their funds in the last 7 hours.

Or Diani and Devine Meet the Apocalypse, who raised $40,000 (40%) of their funds in the final 2 days.

It can be done. Keep plugging away at it, don’t give up.

50%

You’re half-way there. It can be done. Often the first half is a hard-slog to get, and I’m going to be honest – the second half isn’t much easier. But by now you have something special on your side: a crowd. You’ve had enough people provide social proof that your project is the real deal. This is encouraging to the strangers that turn up later on.

You also have people who believe that what you’re doing is so awesome they gave you money to do it. All you have to do is ask, and these people will share your project with all their networks, and tell their friends why your project is worth backing. Your voice is magnified, shared, and you ARE going to make your goal.

80%

People want this to happen. You’re so close. You can see the end of the tunnel but it still seems so far away! This bit is normally the most painful, especially if you’re in the last few hours. If you don’t get over that line, it’s all for nothing.

But you WILL get over that line. Just keep going. Keep sharing. Contact everyone you have ever met and tell them about your project. Ask your existing backers to keep sharing. The stakes are high, but you’re almost on that couch playing Super Mario Brothers.

100%

You did it!

Sometimes with seconds to spare, and sometimes only barely, but you made it. Celebrate!

Pop the bubbly, do a dance, and remember to thank your backers. Share your joy and gratitude with the people who made it possible. I made a Vine.

A warning

None of these signs mean anything if you’re not prepared to work. You’ll need to keep promoting and working your butt off: much like I had to keep putting one foot in front of the other as a child. You will get there, but complacency will lead to failure. You’re not there until you’re there, and sitting on the grass for a while is not going to get you home on time for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.

Predicting crowdfunding success isn’t 100% accurate. Projects still fail with more than 80% raised, and there have been many projects which have taken me by surprise. But these signposts help you to understand what’s normal, and what you should be worried about. If you want to know more on that topic, check out this post on The Golden Gate Bridge Effect.

What I want to know now is have you seen any other projects make a huge leap in the final hours to cross the finish line? Did yours do it? How did you feel looking at that giant stretch in front of you before the flood-gates opened? Let me know in the comments below!